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Ensemble Radar Nowcasts and Rainfall Runoff Modelling for Urban Flood Management

Vorschau

Especially in urban areas, improved strategies arerequired to assess the influence of small scale precipitation patterns of local heavy rainfall events in a flood warning context. In this paper an approach is presented based on ensembles of radar nowcasts and a rainfall runoff modelling tool as part of a flood management system. Nowcast ensembles produce several possible future rainfalls and can help in forecast applications by providing statistical information. Ten nowcast ensemble members have been produced by the SCOUT software with a time step of 5 minutes and a forecast horizon of 60 minutes each. Within the German research project StucK (“Long term drainage management of tide-influenced coastal urban areas with consideration of climate change”) ensemble radar nowcasts with a spatial resolution of 1 km² serve as an input for rainfall runoff modelling with the software KalypsoHydrology which is part of the Kalypso product used for flood management in Hamburg. The study area of the Kollau catchment (ca. 35 km²), Hamburg, is characterized by different hydrological reaction times. The study results show the usefulness of the technique for assessing local flood impacts.

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 Ensemble Radar Nowcasts and Rainfall Runoff Modelling for Urban Flood Management

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Ansprechperson

M.Sc., Dipl.-Ing.(FH) Sandra Hellmers
T. 49 40 428 78 44 12
M. s.hellmers@tuhh.de